Why Fracking Matters in the 2024 U.S. Election

Fracking, shorthand for hydraulic fracturing, has revolutionized the U.S. energy market over the past two decades, propelling the United States to become the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas. Ahead of the November election, however, fracking is again one of the most divisive political issues, with presidential nominees Kamala Harris and Donald Trump staking out differing views on climate goals, fossil fuels, and renewable energy. Grassroots opposition to the practice has led to bans in five states, even as it has become increasingly central to the economies of North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and others.

What is fracking?

Fracking is a technique used to extract natural gas and oil in shale formations or other forms of impermeable rock. It involves drilling deep below the earth’s surface, sometimes as far as ten thousand feet, then drilling sideways for a mile or more. Since the oil and gas is trapped in dense layers of rock and cannot flow through a well by drilling alone, producers need to pump a high-pressure mixture of water, sand, and chemicals to open fractures in the rocks.

The fracturing technique was first introduced into commercial practice in 1949 before being combined with advances in horizontal drilling in the late 1990s. Together, the two processes have allowed producers to tap into deposits [PDF] that were previously inaccessible—also referred to as “unconventional” sources. 

What is its role in the U.S. economy?

Since 2008, the “shale revolution” has helped turn the United States into the world’s leading oil producer after decades of falling output. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2023, fracking added roughly three billion barrels of crude oil to U.S. production—about 64 percent of the nation’s total output.

Growing production enabled the United States to finally become a net energy exporter in 2019, the first time in sixty-seven years. It had already become a net exporter of natural gas in 2017, and those exports hit record levels in 2023. Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated in 2019 that the shale boom contributed 10 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 2010 and 2015 by lowering fuel prices. Meanwhile, fracking’s record on job creation is more contested; industry lobbying groups say unconventional drilling has created millions of jobs, but other experts argue the industry has produced fewer jobs than anticipated.

Fracking production is centered in a few states. The Bakken Formation—one of the country’s top oil-producing regions which spans North Dakota, Montana, and part of southern Canada—has turned North Dakota into a leading oil producer. The oil industry contributes 15 percent to state employment and almost 24 percent to state GDP, according to a 2021 study [PDF] funded by the American Petroleum Institute, an industry lobbying group. However, with Bakken in decline, the largest single source is now the Permian Basin that covers western Texas and southeastern New Mexico and produced close to six million barrels of oil per day in 2023.

Pennsylvania, the birthplace of the U.S. oil industry, now produces the second-most natural gas among U.S. states. Employment in the energy sector there accounted for roughly 5 percent [PDF] of statewide jobs in 2021, while oil and gas was responsible for nearly 9 percent of state GDP in 2023.

Is fracking at odds with U.S. environmental goals?

There is ongoing debate over fracking’s future amid plans for a clean energy transition. The Joe Biden administration has set ambitious climate goals that include achieving a carbon pollution–free power sector by 2035 and a net–zero emissions economy by 2050. Still, Biden and others have seen natural gas in particular, which produces less carbon emissions than oil or coal, as an important part of achieving those goals. Other proponents assert that growing oil and gas production has lowered energy costs and helped reduce U.S. dependence on foreign imports. 

But critics point to fracking’s other environmental harms. Natural gas is responsible for large amounts of methane, a greenhouse gas some eighty times more potent than carbon dioxide. The drilling process can also contaminate and deplete the water supply. Fracking has also been linked to seismic activity. In 2018, Texas recorded a 4.0 magnitude earthquake, the largest earthquake known to be induced by fracking activities, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Strong local opposition has led five state legislatures—in California, Maryland, New York, Vermont, and Washington—to impose fracking bans. Meanwhile, Oregon and Massachusetts have put moratoriums on the practice.

What are fracking’s prospects?

Despite growing investment in renewable energies—which generate more than 21 percent of all U.S. electricity—and softening demand for oil, some energy analysts say fracking’s centrality to the U.S. market is likely to persist. Research from the U.S. Department of Energy suggests that without fracking, consumer oil and gas prices could potentially double [PDF].

Still, ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the two main parties have sharply diverging climate agendas that could shape the nation’s fossil fuel use for years to come.

Former President Trump promises to “drill, baby, drill.” He also opposes much of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration’s signature climate law that budgets roughly $370 billion for emissions-reduction efforts, including tax credits and subsidies for clean energy projects. Meanwhile, Vice President Harris recently walked back a 2019 statement in favor of a fracking ban, arguing for “diverse sources” to reduce reliance on foreign energy.

Still, the dominance of fossil fuels shows no sign of slowing down. Despite Biden’s clean energy initiatives, his administration has approved a range of new fossil fuel projects, including in northern Alaska, and overseen record levels of oil production. Under Biden, the United States has also set in motion a major expansion of its export infrastructure for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Growing LNG supplies allowed for quick redirection to European markets amid the continent’s resulting energy supply crunch from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Will Merrow helped create the graphics for this In Brief.